South Korea turns to OLED, LCD pressure will be greatly reduced next year

Recently, it has been reported in the market that South Korean panel makers will restart production capacity conversion in 2019. Samsung plans to convert 1 to 2 8.5-generation panel makers to quantum dot QD-OLED TV panels. LGD is planning for 2019 and 2020. Convert an 8.5-generation factory into an LCD for Samsung TV panel every year. Since the conversion of production capacity takes more than half a year, it is expected to relieve the pressure of severe oversupply in the market in 2019.

The market survey unit IHS Markit estimates that if the 8.5-generation capacity is reduced, the oversupply ratio will drop to 10%, and the 43-inch and 55-inch panels will have a transfer order effect. Taiwanese panel makers are expected to breathe a sigh of relief.

October TV panels turned over again, because the busy season for the goods is coming to an end, coupled with the increase in the number of films produced by BOE's 10.5 generation factory, the market is under pressure from oversupply, and the prices of 32-inch and 65-inch TV panels fell first, and others For example, 49-inch/50-inch panel prices are also loose. The panel decline from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to stop.

Under the pressure of the new-generation production capacity of mainland panel manufacturers, LCD panels will be in a situation of long-term oversupply in the future, and TV panels may not be profitable. Recently, it has been reported in the market that South Korean panel makers are working on a capacity conversion plan. Samsung plans to convert 1 to 2 8.5-generation panel makers to QD-OLED TV panels in 2019 to fully expand the high-end TV panel market. At present, LGD, the leader of LCD for Samsung TV panels, plans to convert an 8.5-generation factory into OLED TV panels every year in 2019 and 2020, to stabilize the leading position of OLED TV panels.

Xie Qinyi, research director of IHS Markit, said that BOE 10.5 fab officially launched mass production at the end of the first quarter of this year. With the gradual increase in yield, the production capacity continues to expand, and the current production volume has reached 70,000. , It is expected that the number of films cast will increase to 90,000 by the end of this year. In 2019, the production lines of 8.6-generation plants in mainland China will continue to expand, and Huaxing Optoelectronics’ 11-generation plants will also be put into operation in the first quarter. In 2019, it will enter the peak of new production capacity and the estimated oversupply rate is as high as 20%.

Capacity conversion needs to stop the line and adjust the equipment. It takes half a year to a year from the line to stop to restart production, which is equivalent to the loss of the production capacity of two 8.5-generation plants. As a result, it is estimated that the ratio of panel oversupply in 2019 will be reduced to a level of about 10%. At present, South Korean 8.5-generation fabs are mainly used to produce 43-inch, 55-inch, 65-inch TV panels and some monitor panels. Without these capacity, it is expected that 43-inch and 55-inch panels may be out of stock in the short term. For Taiwanese panel makers, the pressure of oversupply in 2019 will be greatly reduced, and 43-inch and 55-inch panels may have a transfer order effect, which can be greatly relieved.

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